{"id":4328,"date":"2019-03-29T15:52:14","date_gmt":"2019-03-29T06:52:14","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.cnic.jp\/english\/?p=4328"},"modified":"2019-04-01T18:51:10","modified_gmt":"2019-04-01T09:51:10","slug":"a-perusal-of-the-recently-released-decommissioning-implementation-policies-decommissioning-costs-grossly-underestimated-at-15-trillion-yen","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cnic.jp\/english\/?p=4328","title":{"rendered":"A perusal of the recently released \u2018Decommissioning Implementation Policies\u2019 ~Decommissioning costs grossly underestimated at 15 trillion yen"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By Nishio Baku, CNIC Co-Director<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

From 25 to 27 December 2018, Japan\u2019s electric power companies, nuclear fuel cycle businesses and users of nuclear fuel materials posted on their websites their \u201cdecommissioning implementation policies\u201d for the facilities they own. The preparation and publication of these policies had been prescribed by Article 57 Paragraph 4 of the revised Act on Regulation of Nuclear Source Material, Nuclear Fuel and Reactors (below, the \u201cReactor Regulation Act\u201d) approved and promulgated in April 2017 at the suggestion of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in April 2016. This Act went into force in October 2018, making publication of decommissioning implementation policies obligatory within three months of its enforcement, thus the posting of policies on websites at the end of last year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Specifically, the following items\nare included:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u30fbFacilities and sites expected to be subject to decommissioning<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u30fbFacilities to be dismantled and methods of dismantling them<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u30fbManagement and conveyance of spent fuel and substances\nseparated from nuclear fuel or spent fuel in connection with decommissioning<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u30fbElimination of contamination by spent fuel or nuclear fuel in\nconnection with decommissioning<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u30fbPrediction of the amounts of spent fuel and substances to be\nseparated from nuclear fuel or spent fuel and items contaminated by any of\nthose, and their disposal<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u30fbManagement of radiation exposures accompanying decommissioning<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u30fbTypes, degrees, impacts, etc. of accidents that could\nconceivably occur during decommissioning in the case of errors, malfunctioning\nmachines or equipment, inundation, earthquakes, fires, etc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u30fbFacilities that will need to be maintained in working order\nduring decommissioning and the period during which their capacity will need to\nbe maintained<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u30fbEstimation of expenses necessary for decommissioning and\nmethods of procuring the needed funding<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u30fbSystem for implementing decommissioning<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u30fbPlan for assuring quality in connection with decommissioning<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u30fbDecommissioning schedule<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Costs\nof decommissioning Tokai Reprocessing Plant and Monju<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Among the estimated costs of decommissioning that have been released, those for the 79 facilities of the Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) will total about 1.8 trillion yen according to a Kyodo News dispatch on December 26 which said, \u201cThe estimate does not include running costs, and it is feared the actual costs could increase greatly if the work is protracted.\u201d On 9 February 2019, NHK reported a calculation of running costs that came to about 3.3 trillion yen. JAEA says, \u201cConsidering that the maintenance costs of all our facilities currently come to 40 billion yen annually, when we ran the calculations assuming a decreasing proportion of maintenance costs as the facilities are dismantled, they came to about 1.4 trillion yen over a 70-year period.\u201d JAEA say they have provided a rough estimate to get an overall feeling of the scale of the budget needed, but when added to the 1.8 trillion yen given above, it comes to about three trillion yen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Below I would like to narrow\nthe focus from JAEA\u2019s many facilities to the Tokai reprocessing plant and Monju\nprototype fast breeder reactor, and look at the estimated costs of their\ndecommissioning in JAEA\u2019s decommissioning implementation policies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For the Tokai reprocessing plant,\nthe costs will be about 140 billion yen to dismantle the facility, about 250\nbillion yen to process radioactive wastes and about 380 billion yen to dispose\nof them\u30fc a total of about 770 billion yen. On\ntop of that, there are the following additional items: \u201cNote that aside from\nthe above costs, there will be a necessary outlay over the next ten years (of\nabout 217 billion yen) as indicated in plans toward decommissioning the Tokai\nreprocessing plant (in a report dated Nov. 11, 2016). This includes the costs\nof safety measures based on the new regulatory standards and measures for aging\nmanagement and vitrification operations, among others.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In total the costs come to roughly\none trillion yen. The period over which they are to be incurred, however, will\nbe considerably longer than \u201cthe next ten years.\u201d \u201cUltimately, to complete all\nof the decommissioning measures at about 30 facilities in the controlled area (up\nto termination of the controlled area), is expected to take about 70 years.\u201d In\nview of the state of progress of decommissioning (assessed by the Nuclear\nRegulation Authority\u2019s (NRA\u2019s) Tokai reprocessing plant safety monitoring\nteam), the period will probably have to be extended.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For the Monju fast breeder\nreactor, the costs will be about 15 billion yen to retrieve the spent fuel and\nprepare for decommissioning, about 87 billion yen to dismantle the facilities,\nabout 24 billion yen to process radioactive wastes and about 24 billion yen to\ndispose of them, for a total of about 150 billion yen. There is no mention at\nall of costs beyond these.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When the decision to decommission Monju was made in December 2016, the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology of Japan (MEXT) released an estimate that gave running costs of about 225 billion yen for the 30 years until dismantling could be completed, plus some additional costs of complying with the new regulatory standards, raising the above-mentioned total cost to about 375 billion yen. The Board of Audit of Japan compiled a report in May 2018 titled Regarding the Status of the Monju Fast Breeder Reactor\u2019s R&D and Future Decommissioning<\/em>, which had this to say:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cNeither the necessary personnel costs for employees nor property taxes\nare reflected in the above costs. In addition, it will be necessary to transfer\nMonju\u2019s fuel to processing facilities and dispose of it properly, but concrete\nplans and methods for the conveyance, disposal, etc. are to be considered while\nthe fuel is being retrieved. Thus, regarding the necessary costs, only those\nwithin the scope of what can be approximated at this time have been reflected.\nMoreover, regarding the necessary costs of processing and disposing of the\nsodium, the methods of treatment, etc. are to be considered during the course\nof decommissioning, so changes are possible as decommissioning proceeds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cRegarding the necessary future costs of Monju\u2019s decommissioning, this\nwill be the first attempt in Japan to decommission a fast breeder reactor and\nchanges may be made in the decommissioning process. If the time needed for\ndecommissioning ends up being extended beyond the initial estimate of 30 years,\nthe costs are expected to increase. Accordingly, for the JAEA to be accountable\nto the public, it will be important for it to clarify the state of\nimplementation and necessary costs of decommissioning in a timely and\nappropriate manner as it proceeds with decommissioning.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These indications apply to the Tokai reprocessing plant\nand many other facilities as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Untraversed\nField of Waste Disposal<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

A Kyodo News dispatch of 30 December\n2018 reported that if all 73 of the main commercial nuclear power related\nfacilities, including nuclear power plants (NPPs) and nuclear fuel cycle\nfacilities, were decommissioned, the costs would come to at least 12.8 trillion\nyen. This figure was released following the JAEA decommissioning implementation\npolicies. It was said to be the total of the estimated costs of 4.8 trillion\nyen for 69 facilities released by 19 companies, plus 8 trillion yen estimated\nby the government for Units 1 to 4 of TEPCO\u2019s Fukushima Daiichi NPP, which are\nnot included in the former. An explanatory note was added, saying \u201cNote that\nthe number of years to complete decommissioning of most nuclear plants is\nexpected to be about 30 to 40, but in these estimations, the costs of facility\nmaintenance and measures against aging have not been included, so the costs are\ncertain to rise further.\u201d Together with the JAEA\u2019s aforementioned 1.8 trillion\nyen, it comes to nearly 15 trillion yen, which is a gross underestimate. There\nare other national institutes aside from the JAEA, such as the National\nInstitute of Radiological Science (NIRS) and the physics research institute RIKEN,\nbut their costs are not so big.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Costs to decommission NPPs have\nbeen calculated annually in Japan as estimations of \u201creserve funds for\ndismantling of NPP facilities.\u201d There is no big difference between the amount\nannounced this time and the \u201creserve funds for dismantling\u201d available for\nfiscal 2015, so it must be the most recent estimate. Only the costs for\nFukushima Daiichi Units 1 to 4 have not been released in either the estimations\nof the reserve funds for dismantling or the decommissioning implementation policies.\nThe government\u2019s estimate of 8 trillion yen lacks any basis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Neither the JAEA\u2019s Ningyo-toge\nEnvironmental Engineering Center nor any of Japan Nuclear Fuel Ltd.\u2019s uranium\nenrichment and nuclear fuel processing facilities have released costs in their decommissioning\nimplementation policies. The Ningyo-toge Environmental Engineering Center only\nlists costs to dismantle the facilities, leaving the waste disposal cost column\nblank. Those of the other facilities just say, \u201cThe outlays necessary for\ndecommissioning cannot be estimated in a reasonable manner.\u201d This is because no\nsystem for disposing of uranium waste has been devised, so they are \u201cunable to\nselect contaminant removal or waste disposal methods, and the preconditions for\nestimating costs have yet to be decided.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 60 years have passed\nsince Japan began developing nuclear energy. It should come as a surprise that\neven now no system for disposing of radioactive wastes has been created, but\nthis is the result of promoting last-minute measures in pursuit of ways to\nhandle the problem or else just giving up. Furthermore, even if a system for\ndisposal is tentatively created, in reality this is mostly an untrodden field.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even looking only at NPPs\n(excluding Fukushima Daiichi Units 1 to 4) and assuming it possible to carry\naway the approximately 56,000 tons considered relatively low level radioactive\nwaste (L2) to the Rokkasho waste landfill, disposal destinations for about 6,000\ntons considered relatively high-level (L1) and about 970,000 tons considered\nextremely low-level (L3), have yet to be determined. About 1 million tons,\nconsidered to be \u201cwaste not needing to be treated as radioactive substances,\u201d which\nis at or below the clearance level, and \u201cwaste that is not radioactive waste,\u201d which\nis approximately 10 times more abundant (and depending on the facility, the\namount may not even be listed), is deemed as suitable for recycling, but at\npresent there are no plans for that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is also a notice to the\neffect that incidental wastes are not included in the estimated amounts.\nMoreover, the amount of wastes held at the time of decommissioning are not\nincluded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding L1 wastes, Japan\u2019s\nNuclear Regulation Authority (NRA) has established a \u201cteam to consider\nregulations for radioactive wastes accompanying reactor decommissioning, etc.\u201d\nand is preparing regulatory standards for burial of wastes at depths of 70\nmeters or more and managing them for about 100,000 years into the future.\nRegarding L3 wastes, on July 16, 2015, Japan Atomic Power Co., which is working\non the decommissioning of the Tokai NPP, applied to the NRA for approval of an on-site\nlandfill at the NPP, disposing of it in trenches. It is a low-cost disposal\nmethod in which metallic wastes are placed into steel boxes, concrete blocks are\nwrapped in plastic sheeting and concrete debris is put into flexible container\nbags which are buried in trenches about four meters deep and covered with about\n2.5 meters of soil. It is obvious that other companies will want to dispose of\ntheir wastes in a similar fashion, but Fukui Prefecture among others is\nstrongly demanding that any waste be taken out of the prefecture, so it is not\nso simple. Temporary storage is thus expected to continue, with neither on-site\ndisposal nor transporting it away being possible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even regarding wastes approved\nfor clearance, in a July 15, 2018 article, Shizuoka Shimbun reported that while\na petition was filed with the NRA in October 2017 for approval of methods for\nmeasuring and evaluating some of the metallic materials from Units 1 and 2 of\nthe Hamaoka NPP, which are undergoing decommissioning, the plan for most of\nthem is to expand the site further and store them temporarily outside.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The actual track record of\nrecycling is limited to things like benches made from scrap metal generated by\nthe Tokai NPP being used at a nuclear power PR hall. A report titled Regarding Recycling of Demolition Waste from\nNuclear Power Facilities and RI Equipment<\/em>, compiled in November 2018 by the\nInstitute of Applied Energy\u2019s Decommissioning Study Group, proposed that\n\u201crestrictions on recycling should be rescinded without delay\u201d because \u201cas\nthings stand, based on replies to Diet deliberations at the time the law was\nrevised, recycling is limited to businesses that are aware that the materials\ncome from nuclear power facilities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As a precondition for that, nuclear\npower-related businesses are calling for reassessment of the methods of\nmeasuring and evaluating the concentrations of radioactive substances. In talks\nwith the Federation of Electric Power Companies and other organizations on\nAugust 30, 2018, the NRA indicated a course toward revision of clearance laws\nand bylaws, and those talks have continued since then. The NRA also held a\nmeeting with businesses to exchange views on October 11. In a meeting of the\nNRA on January 9, 2019, Chairman Toyoshi Fuketa mentioned revision as one of\nthe most important tasks for 2019, so it looks like the reassessment will be\nrailroaded through this year. It will be necessary to speak up once more against\nrevision of clearance levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even with that revision,\nalmost none of the approximately one million tons of materials approved for\nclearance would be recyclable. There would be nothing to do but store them for\nthe time being. In all likelihood, they will stay sitting around at NPP sites,\nwith L3 playing a leading role. Even for \u201cwaste that is not radioactive waste\u201d\nit is difficult to conceive of it being readily accepted even in the face of\nstubborn insistence that it is not radioactive and that it must be recycled or accepted\nfor disposal. There is too much of it for anyone to accept anyway.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is estimated to take about 30\nto 40 years to complete the decommissioning of any of Japan\u2019s nuclear reactors,\nbut this is unlikely to proceed smoothly and the costs are expected to keep on\nincreasing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As for nuclear fuel cycle\nfacilities, not even the Rokkasho waste landfill can be called on to accept L2\nwaste, so there is no clear destination for any of the waste being generated or\nstored. Decommissioning takes a long time, and the costs are guaranteed to\nincrease further.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Nishio Baku, CNIC Co-Director From 25 to 27 December 2018, Japan\u2019s electric power companies, nuclear fuel cycle businesses and users of nuclear fuel materials posted on their websites their \u201cdecommissioning implementation policies\u201d for...<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[90,33],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4328","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics-of-nuclear-power","category-rw"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cnic.jp\/english\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4328","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cnic.jp\/english\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cnic.jp\/english\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cnic.jp\/english\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cnic.jp\/english\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4328"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/cnic.jp\/english\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4328\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4397,"href":"https:\/\/cnic.jp\/english\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4328\/revisions\/4397"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cnic.jp\/english\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4328"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cnic.jp\/english\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4328"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cnic.jp\/english\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4328"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}