CNIC Statement: Concerns over Revival of the Nuclear Power Myth and Unrealistic Nuclear Policy -Regarding Comments on Nuclear Power in the Liberal Democratic Party Presidential Election and the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan Representative Election-
September 27, 2024
This September, two major events are taking place in Japanese politics. One is the Liberal Democratic Party presidential election (votes were counted today, September 27th), and the other is the election of the representative of the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, the main opposition party (votes were counted on the 23rd).
During these two elections, the candidates of both parties unanimously expressed their intention to proceed with the restart of nuclear power plants that have been confirmed to be safe in order to ensure a stable supply of electricity. So, what does “confirmed to be safe” mean? Specifically, it refers to nuclear power plants which the Nuclear Regulation Authority (NRA) has recognized as complying with the new regulatory standards. Nonetheless, when NRA says, “it complies with the new regulatory standards,” they do not say that the safety of the plant is confirmed.
The problem is not just about the definition. The candidates have already forgotten the devastation of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident and the consequent power supply shortage which happened 13 years ago.
Nuclear power plants contain dangerous radioactive materials. Therefore, if some fault is identified, in some cases it may be necessary to shut down all nuclear power plants to deal with the problem. In fact, after the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident, all nuclear plants in Japan were shut down for some time.
People might think that nuclear power plants are shut down because of a major accident. However, this is not always the case. In the summer of 2022 in France, only 27 of 56 nuclear power plants were able to operate. Although the reasons for the shutdown of the 29 reactors varied, 12 of them were stopped because cracks were found in the pipes of the same type of nuclear power plant. Once something happens, it could result in shutdowns of a large number of nuclear power plants at the same time.
In 2011, there were many thermal power plants in operation, which is why a large-scale power supply shortage was avoided at the time. Thirteen years have passed since then, and the deterioration of the thermal power plants has progressed. In order to achieve the government’s planned ratio of nuclear power plants in the power mix of 20-22% (as of 2030), it will be necessary to restart more than 27 nuclear power plants. Although we do not believe this is possible, if a problem was discovered during the time when the 27 nuclear power plants were in operation and all of them were shut down again, it would be difficult to secure a stable supply of electricity in the current situation. At the same time, from the viewpoint of decarbonization, it would not be acceptable to increase CO2 emissions. As the government requested the restart of Units 3 and 4 of the Ooi Nuclear Power Plant in 2012, it is undeniable that there is a chance that dangerous nuclear power plants may be forced to be operated for the sake of the electricity supply.
During the Liberal Democratic Party presidential election campaign, there were many statements that were even more worrying. For example, against a background of future power demand growth projections associated with AI and data centers, there are expectations for the construction of new nuclear power plants and even nuclear fusion plants.
According to the Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, the high-scenario electricity demand forecast for 2050 is 1.27 trillion kWh and 0.94 trillion kWh in the low-scenario case (0.92 trillion kWh as of 2021), even if the expected increase of demand for data centers and electrification is included.[i] At the same time, if current plans for new nuclear plants proceed, it will be more than 10 years before operation actually starts. In France, for example, new nuclear power plants which began operating this year required 17 years just for construction.
While huge amounts have been invested just to restart nuclear power plants, there are currently no nuclear operators who are able to build multiple nuclear power plants on their own. Even with the implementation of abundant support for nuclear power plants now being discussed by the Atomic Energy Subcommittee, the possible increase in the number of nuclear power plants up to 2050 will be very small. Assuming the high-scenario forecast is correct, the scale and timeline of new nuclear power plants does not match the forecast.
When it comes to nuclear fusion, this is nothing more than pie in the sky. Recently, an active movement for nuclear fusion has arisen, but there are many technical challenges to be overcome before it can be used as a power generation technology. Even if a commercial reactor were to be built, there is no prospect of it becoming a competitive power source compared to, for example, renewable energy. Even with government support, it will definitely not be commercially viable by 2050.
The elections to choose the leaders of the ruling party and the main opposition party are also forums for discussions on Japan’s path forward. Such important policy discussions must be conducted with the feet on the ground and in line with reality.
[i] www.occto.or.jp/iinkai/shorai_jukyu/2023/files/shoraijukyu_04_02_01.pdf(In Japanese)
