The decline of nuclear energy – as seen in the 2005 Electric Power Supply Plan

The Ministry of Economy Trade and Industry’s (METI) Agency for Natural Resources and Energy (ANRE) has released the 2005 Electric Power Supply Plan. Table 1 below shows the Nuclear Power Development Plan.

Once again, other than the plants currently under construction, most of the planned nuclear power plants are postponed another year. Ohma hasn’t been postponed this time, but last year it was postponed for two years. In the case of Higashidoori-2 at both Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) and Tohoku Electric, last year’s plan already included a postponement of three years. Last year Tsuruga-2&3 were postponed by two and three years respectively. This year they are postponed a further one year. No clear progress can be seen at TEPCO and Kansai Electric Power Company (KEPCO) has no new reactors planned at all.

In the next ten years to 2014, eleven new reactors are scheduled to commence operation (total 14,720 MW). As was expected from last year’s plan, Hamaoka-5 (1,380 MW) commenced operations in January this year, bringing the number of operational reactors to 53 (total 47,122 MW). In the plan for this business year, Tohoku Electric’s Higashidoori-1 is scheduled to commence operations in October, which will bring the total to 54 operational reactors. Hamaoka is a problem from the point of view of earthquakes and Higashidoori will be the first new reactor since the scope of liberalization in the electric power sector was expanded, so it can be expected that these reactors will increase the burden on power companies more than ever.

With the exception of Hokuriku Electric’s Shika-2, it can be seen that the prospects are not good for the construction of large reactors of the 1,350 MW scale. Tohoku Electric’s Higashidoori-2 and TEPCO’s Higashidoori-1&2 plans were changed to ABWRs (1,385 MW). Increased power input means more warm waste water. The reason given for the postponement is that the resulting negotiations with the fishing industry are proving difficult. However, in reality they are probably concerned that these large reactors will produce a power surplus.

Besides nuclear, the following new power supplies are scheduled to be brought on line in the next ten years: 12,050 MW thermal (7,920 MW LNG, 4,100 MW coal, 30 MW oil); and 2,390 MW hydro (250 MW reservoir type hydro, 2,140 MW pumped storage type hydro).

Tadahiro Katsuta (CNIC)

Table 1: 2005 Nuclear Power Development Plan¹

1. Table made by CNIC, based on Electric Power Supply Plan for 2005 Business Year (1 April 2005 – 30 March 2006),
Agency for Natural Resources and Energy, March 2005
2. As at April 2005. Process moves from the Basic Plan, to the Safety Assessment, before commencing construction.
3. The ‘postponement’ is taken from the scheduled date for the commencement of operations in last year’s plan.
*Please note that the Tohoku Electric and TEPCO Higashidoori reactors are at different power plants. Both companies are building or plan to build power plants in Higashidoori. (Note that Higashidoori 1 commenced operations on 8 December 2005.)